The Elephant

A resource for journalists, politicians, policy makers, activists and citizens interested in climate change and the environmental emergency

Topic: Predictions

Related Articles (109)

September 2023 ENSO Outlook: An El Niño convo

  2023-10-04 (or before) in

The September 2023 ENSO Outlook predicts El Niño will stick around at least through January-March 2024. But don't just take it from us, hear directly from the Pacific Ocean and tropical atmosphere, who join the blog to answer some questions.

  Tagged under: Oceans | Predictions | El Niño

The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions

  2023-09-09 (or before) in American Meteorological Society Journals

Faced by the realities of a changing climate, decision makers in a wide variety of organizations are increasingly seeking quantitative predictions of regional and local climate. An important issue for these decision makers, and for organizations that fund climate research, is what is the potential for climate science to deliver improvements—especially reductions in uncertainty—in such predictions? Uncertainty in climate predictions arises from three distinct sources: internal variability, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. Using data from a suite of climate models, we separate and quantify these sources. Fo...

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change

Antarctica warming much faster than models predicted in ‘deeply concerning’ sign for sea levels

  2023-09-07 in The Guardian

Study finds ‘direct evidence’ of polar amplification on continent as scientists warn of implications of ice loss

  Tagged under: Global Warming | Predictions | Antarctic | Sea Level

Exxon Predicts World Will Miss Climate-Change Targets

  2023-08-29 (or before) by in The Wall Street Journal - Breaking News, Business, Financial & Economic News, World News and Video

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Exxon

How climate scientists feel about seeing their dire predictions come true

  2023-08-18 in Los Angeles Times

Wildfires in Canada and Hawaii. Hurricane Hilary set to strike California. Scientists have warned about worse storms and more frequent fires for years.

  Tagged under: Predictions | California | Wildfires

Major 'Population Correction' Coming For Humanity, Scientist Predicts

  2023-08-18 by in ScienceAlert

A little over two centuries ago, in the year 1800, roughly a billion people called Earth home.

  Tagged under: Predictions

Is the climate crisis finally catching up with Antarctica? Finding the answer has never been more pressing | Andrew Meijers

  2023-08-07 in The Guardian

Our inability to confidently predict sea level rise between an extremely challenging two metres and a civilisation-ending 10 metres is an exemplar of the problem facing researchers

  Tagged under: Oceans | Predictions | Antarctic | Sea Level

Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation - Nature Communications

  2023-07-25 (or before) in Nature

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system. Here, data-driven estimators for the time of tipping predict a potential AMOC collapse mid-century under the current emission scenario.

  Tagged under: Predictions | Collapse | Tipping Points

‘No one wants to be right about this’: climate scientists’ horror and exasperation as global predictions play out

  2023-07-24 in The Guardian

As the northern hemisphere burns, experts feel deep sadness – and resentment – while dreading what lies ahead this Australian summer

  Tagged under: Predictions | Fossil Fuels | El Niño | Heatwaves | Wildfires

Excessive heat: Why this summer has been so hot - BBC News

  2023-07-14 (or before) in The BBC

Experts are predicting that the developing El Niño is likely to make 2023 the world's hottest year.

  Tagged under: Predictions

Unprecedented ocean temperatures "much higher than anything the models predicted," climate experts warn - CBS News

  2023-07-11 (or before) in CBS News

NOAA warned in late June that half of the world's oceans may experience marine heat wave conditions by September.

  Tagged under: Oceans | Predictions

Weather, Climate and the Nature of Predictability

  2023-07-09 (or before) in ResearchGate

PDF | The prediction and simulation of future weather and climate is a key ingredient in good weather risk management. This chapter briefly reviews the... | Find, read and cite all the research you need on ResearchGate

  Tagged under: Predictions

A conceptual framework for predicting temperate ecosystem sensitivity to human impacts on fire regimes

  2023-07-09 (or before) in Wiley Online Library

Abstract Aim The increased incidence of large fires around much of the world in recent decades raises questions about human and non-human drivers of fire and the likelihood of increased fire activi...

  Tagged under: Predictions

Ofwat boss denies water industry badly regulated as he predicts higher bills

  2023-07-05 in The Guardian

David Black says water firms’ debt is ‘their issue to sort out’ because regulator did not have powers to tackle problem until recently

  Tagged under: Predictions | Finance

Greenland and Antarctica Cracking | FlaglerLive

  2023-07-01 (or before) by in

Earth’s remaining ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are far more vulnerable to climate warming than models predict.

  Tagged under: Predictions | Antarctic

Global warming intensifies rainfall in mountainous regions

  2023-06-29 (or before) in Nature

As the climate warms, the amount of atmospheric water vapour increases and the type of precipitation shifts towards more rain and less snow. These two mechanisms amplify the intensity of rainfall extremes in high-elevation regions by 15% per degree Celsius of warming, approximately double the previously reported rate. An increase in precipitation combined with a reduction in the fraction falling as snow is predicted to result in more-extreme rainfall in high-elevation regions.

  Tagged under: Predictions

LEAK: Commission dismissive of food security fears in new pesticide study

  2023-06-19 (or before) in EURACTIV

The EU plan to cut pesticide use and risk in half by 2030 will have its largest impact on crops having 'little or no impact on food security', the European Commission predicted in its additional impact assessment requested by EU ministers.

  Tagged under: Predictions

El Niño is coming. We must plan for the worst to protect Australia’s energy system | Dylan McConnell and Iain MacGill

  2023-06-09 in The Guardian

The Bureau of Meteorology predicts increased temperatures and heatwaves this year, raising the prospect of blackouts – just as the electricity sector faces several other challenges

  Tagged under: Renewable Energy | Predictions | Fossil Fuels | Electricity | El Niño | Heatwaves

Antarctic alarm bells: observations reveal deep ocean currents are slowing earlier than predicted

  2023-05-25 by in The Conversation

Scientists have detected a 30% slowdown of the deep ocean currents that form in Antarctica, with profound consequences for Earth’s climate, sea level and marine life.

  Tagged under: Oceans | Predictions | Antarctic | Sea Level

New Ice Discovery Means Glaciers Could Melt Way Faster Than Predicted

  2023-05-09 by in ScienceAlert

A closer look at the junction where a Greenland glacier crunches into the ocean floor, known as its grounding line, has revealed less stability amid the shifting of tides – and therefore a greater rate of melting – than previously estimated thanks...

  Tagged under: Oceans | Predictions | Ice Melting

Foot of rain causes severe flooding in South Florida in ‘1-in-1,000 year event’

  2023-04-13 in The Guardian

Forecasts predicted more rain on Thursday as Fort Lauderdale issues a state of emergency with flooding persisting in parts of city

  Tagged under: Predictions | Florida

Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

  2023-04-05 (or before) in PNAS - Proceedings of the National Academy of Science

Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation i...

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Climate Change Impacts

The oceans just reached their hottest temperature on record as El Niño looms. Here are 6 things to watch for | CNN

  2023-04-01 by in CNN

It's unclear how strong the coming El Niño will be -- some models predict it could reach super-strength, others suggest it will be more moderate.

  Tagged under: Oceans | Drought | Predictions | Climate Change | Antarctic | Flooding | El Niño | Health | Climate Change Impacts | Finance

‘Slipping through our fingers’: New Zealand scientists distraught at scale of glacier loss

  2023-03-31 in The Guardian

Research institute NIWA predicts many of country’s most important glaciers will be gone within the decade

  Tagged under: Predictions

Greta Thunberg and Sophia Kianni face disgusting misogyny from climate deniers | Red, Green, and Blue

  2023-03-21 in Red, Green and Blue

Happy Women’s History Month! Unfortunately, it comes as no surprise that the climate disinformation sphere is once again filled with misogynistic attacks against women climate activists. By Climate Denier Roundup Recently, Greta Thunberg was targeted on social media for allegedly deleting a 2018 tweet that linked to an article that predicted climate change would wipe out humanity by 2023.  However, …

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Activism | Disinformation and Misinformation | Women and Children

Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks: CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate Anomalies

  2023-03-21 (or before) in Climate Prediction Center

  Tagged under: Predictions

BSC News

  2023-03-14 (or before) in

  Tagged under: Predictions

Critical insolation–CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future glacial inception - Nature

  2023-03-12 (or before) in Nature

A critical functional relationship between boreal summer insolation and global carbon dioxide concentration is proposed and tested with simulations; it accounts for the beginning of the past eight glacial cycles and predicts that the next one is unusually far off, even without the effect of anthropogenic emissions.

  Tagged under: Predictions

Solar’s stunning journey from lab curiosity to global juggernaut wiping out fossil fuels

  2023-02-10 in Renew Economy | News and analysis for the clean energy economy

Leading solar researcher predicts technology will “wipe fossil fuels” out of the global economy, and help deliver a resilient, reliable and extremely cheap energy grid.

  Tagged under: Solar Energy | Predictions | Fossil Fuels | Electricity Grid

Stanford study uses AI to predict global warming threshold timelines

  2023-02-06 in

Media coverage of a new Stanford-led study that uses AI to predict when we will pass key global warming thresholds. The Guardian | Jan 30, 2023 | Earth is on track to exceed 1.5C warming in the next decade, study using AI finds | Noah Diffenbaugh discusses the evidence and impact of the study's climate projections. USA Today | Jan 30, 2023 | Artificial intelligence predicts climate change coming faster than we recently thought, new study says | Noah Diffenbaugh on the risk of passing significant climate thresholds.

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Sustainability

ExxonMobil: Oil giant predicted climate change in 1970s - scientists - BBC News

  2023-01-13 (or before) in The BBC

Researchers claim to put a number on what Exxon knew about temperature rise as early as the 1970s.

  Tagged under: Exxon | Predictions | Climate Change

Exxon scientists predicted global warming with ‘shocking skill and accuracy,’ Harvard researchers say

  2023-01-12 in Harvard Gazette

In the study, scientists showed how the multinational energy giant worked to cloud the issue.

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Exxon | Fossil Fuels

"Exxon Knew:" Company's climate research accurately projected global warming, study says

  2023-01-12 in Axios

  Tagged under: Exxon | Predictions

Nuclear energy in the UK - POST

  2023-01-11 (or before) in

Nuclear electricity is a predictable and low-carbon part of the UK energy mix, currently providing 15% of the UK’s electricity. However, most existing nuclear power stations are set to close by 2030. The Government has an ambition to increase production of nuclear energy. One new nuclear power station is under construction (Hinkley Point C) and another (Sizewell C) has received planning consent. This POSTnote reviews the evidence surrounding the construction of new nuclear power stations and the ways in which nuclear might contribute to emission reduction targets.

  Tagged under: Nuclear Power | Predictions | Electricity

Journalism, media, and technology trends and predictions 2023

  2023-01-10 (or before) in

  Tagged under: Predictions

Why the Language of Climate Change Matters - Inside Climate News

  2022-12-24 by in Inside Climate News

In a 1920 edition of a local Pennsylvania newspaper, a brief article appeared with a simple title: “The Chestnut.” Although this was a story about a species of tree, it read more like an obituary for a beloved relative. “All hope is abandoned of saving the American chestnut from the blight,” the writer declared, predicting […]

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change

I predicted the 2008 crash – these are the global 'megathreats' I can see now | Nouriel Roubini

  2022-11-05 in The Guardian

Life as we know it is under threat, as short-term-thinking politicians ignore the signs that point to a dystopian future, says Nouriel Roubini

  Tagged under: Predictions | Economics

Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions

  2022-10-22 (or before) in ESD

Abstract. Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range. However, global temperature excluding short-term variability now exceeds +1 °C relative to the 1880–1920 mean and annual 2016 global temperature was almost +1.3 °C. We show that global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range and Earth is now as warm as it was during the prior (Eemian) interglacial period, when sea level reached 6&ndash...

  Tagged under: Greenhouse Gases | Predictions | Climate Change | Sea Level | Climate Change Impacts | Trees

The homogenization of avian morphological and phylogenetic diversity under the global extinction crisis

  2022-08-15 (or before) in Cell Press

The global extinction crisis will lead to widespread losses of morphological diversity. Hughes et al. show that predicted species extinctions drive far greater declines of ecological strategies than predicted, with important ramifications for humans as ecosystem services are lost. In contrast, phylogenetic diversity declines as expected.

  Tagged under: Predictions

A dynamic model of nonviolent resistance strategy

  2022-08-08 (or before) in PLOS - Open Science

Why have some nonviolent revolutions succeeded even with modest participation numbers, while others have failed despite massive mobilization? We develop an agent-based model that predicts the outcomes of three well-known activism strategies. The first rapidly recruits a wide number of activists, which overwhelms the opponent’s support network and encourages large-scale defections. In the second, activists who have already mobilized remain committed to success and inspire other civilians to protest even when they are unable to protest themselves. In the third strategy, campaigns focus their energy and influence directly on ...

  Tagged under: Activism | Predictions | Finance

New study reveals that climate change will severely impact bird species by 2080

  2022-08-04 (or before) in - News and Articles on Science and Technology

Bioscientists from Durham University, UK and Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Germany have predicted in their latest research that bird communities will change worldwide in 2080 due to climate change, largely as result of shifting their ranges.

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change

Negative IOD declared

  2022-08-02 (or before) in Weather Zone Australia

A wet spring could be on the cards for large parts of Australia with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole now officially underway in the Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) refers to a pattern of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Indian Ocean that causes more moisture-laden air to flow towards Australia. These negative IOD events, which occur on average once every five years, typically enhance northwest cloudbands over Australia and produce above-average rain over large areas of country's south and southeast during winter and spring. The Bureau of Meteorology has today declared that a negative IOD ev...

  Tagged under: Oceans | Extreme Weather | Extreme Rainfall | Predictions

404 mm breaks July rainfall record in Sydney

  2022-08-01 (or before) in Weather Zone Australia

Sydney has just broken a monthly rainfall record for the second time this year, continuing the city’s prolific run of wet weather in 2022. Sydney’s main rain gauge at Observatory Hill, located next to the Harbour Bridge, collected a whopping 404.0 mm of rain during July. This is more than four times its long-term monthly average and the highest July total in records dating back to 1858, beating 336.1 mm from 1950. Sydney has now registered two record wet months in 2022, with July’s 404.0 mm and March’s 554.0 mm both unrivalled in more than 160 years of observations at the site. The city&rsquo...

  Tagged under: Extreme Rainfall | Australia | Predictions

Do these heat waves mean climate change is happening faster than expected?

  2022-07-22 in the knowledge platform for disaster risk reduction

General warming predictions are still on track, but recent heat waves are a stress test for the modeling of extreme events. Are they more extreme than studies had predicted they would be, given the levels of greenhouse gases now in the atmosphere?

  Tagged under: Global Warming | Predictions | Climate Change

Wolf attacks predict far-right voting | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

  2022-07-19 (or before) in PNAS - Proceedings of the National Academy of Science

Does the return of large carnivores affect voting behavior? We study this question through the lens of wolf attacks on livestock. Sustained environ...

  Tagged under: Predictions | Wildlife

Humans will be extinct in 100 years says eminent scientist

  2022-07-08 (or before) in - News and Articles on Science and Technology

( -- Eminent Australian scientist Professor Frank Fenner, who helped to wipe out smallpox, predicts humans will probably be extinct within 100 years, because of overpopulation, environmental destruction and climate change.

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change

Physicists predict Earth will become a chaotic world, with dire consequences

  2022-05-25 in Live Science

If the Earth System gets into the region of chaotic behavior, we will lose all hope of somehow fixing the problem.

  Tagged under: Predictions

Ross Clark

  2022-05-16 (or before) by in DeSmog

Ross Clark Credentials Background Ross Clark is a British journalist who has written for the Spectator, the Times, the Daily Mail, the Daily Express, and the Sun. [2] Clark regularly questions climate science in columns for the Spectator, arguing, for instance, that while “climatic observations” should be trusted, predictions should be taken with “a pinch of salt” because “the only […]

  Tagged under: Predictions

Collapse is Coming. An Unsustainable Society Will Not Last.

  2022-05-16 by in Deep Green Resistance News Service

Predictions of societal collapse have been made for decades. The general trends are undeniable. Collapse is coming. In fact, it's here.

  Tagged under: Predictions | Collapse

Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk - Nature

  2022-04-29 (or before) in Nature

At least 10,000 virus species have the capacity to infect humans, but at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals1,2. However, climate and land use change will produce novel opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically-isolated species of wildlife3,4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover—a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here, we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographic model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographic range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under clim...

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Africa | Wildlife

Crop Failures More likely in Warmer, Dryer World - Woodwell Climate

  2022-02-14 by in Woodwell Climate - Investigating the causes and effects of climate change.

Models predict increasing crop failures in world's major breadbaskets over next three decades. Water availability will dictate resilience.

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change

Climate change: Science failed to predict flood and heat intensity - BBC News

  2021-12-22 (or before) in The BBC

Scientists want a super-computer powerful enough to accurately project the most damaging extremes.

  Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Predictions | Climate Change

Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama?

  2021-12-21 (or before) in

Over the past two decades, skeptics of the reality and significance of anthropogenic climate change have frequently accused climate scientists of “ala…

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change

Climate Science Needs to Take Risk Assessment Much More Seriously

  2021-12-21 (or before) in American Meteorological Society Journals

Abstract For decision-makers, climate change is a problem in risk assessment and risk management. It is, therefore, surprising that the needs and lessons of risk assessment have not featured more centrally in the consideration of priorities for physical climate science research, or in the Working Group I contributions to the major assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This article considers the reasons, which include a widespread view that the job of physical climate science is to provide predictions and projections—with a focus on likelihood rather than risk—and that risk assessment is...

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change

Great Barrier Reef could face another mass bleaching by end of January, forecast says

  2021-12-18 in The Guardian

Scientists are hoping La Niña conditions might yet stave off threat from predicted heat accumulation in northern and central reef

  Tagged under: Predictions | Wildlife | Great Barrier Reef | Coral Reefs

Soil Properties

  2021-12-14 (or before) by in AdaptNSW

Climate change modelling and predictions for the NSW and ACT

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Climate Change Impacts

Scientists improving the ‘crystal ball’ for better climate predictions

  2021-11-19 (or before) in European Commission

  What will Earth be like in 50 or 100 years? To make such predictions, the closest thing we have to a crystal ball is data. ‘Climate models help make sense out of the current state of the climate,’ said Dr Debbie Rosen, a research manager at the University of Leeds. ‘They can also be used to understand how the climate changed in the past, and for projecting future change.’ With data, policymakers can enact effective policy responses.

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change

How tracking forest biomass change from space informs carbon cycling models

  2021-11-18 in Climate Home News

Sponsored content: Using a combination of data from different satellites, scientists are predicting the amount of above-ground biomass stored in the world's forests

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Trees

Emissions Gap Report 2021

  2021-10-26 (or before) in UN Environment Programme

With climate change intensifying and scientists warning that humanity is running out of time to limit global warming to 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels, 2021 has been a fraught year for the planet. The Emissions Gap Report 2021: The Heat Is On is the 12th edition in an annual series that provides an overview of the difference between where greenhouse emissions are predicted to be in 2030 and where they should be to avert the worst impacts of climate change.

  Tagged under: Greenhouse Gases | Predictions | Climate Change | Net Zero | Climate Change Impacts

Climate change could be worse than our worst-case analysis: Texas A&M's Dessler

  2021-10-19 (or before) in CNBC

Andrew Dessler, climate scientist at Texas A&M, explains the impact that extreme climate events are having on the world right now and says things could actually be worse than scientists' most dire predictions.

  Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Predictions | Climate Change

Climate change: Science failed to predict flood and heat intensity - BBC News

  2021-10-19 (or before) in BBC

Scientists want a super-computer powerful enough to accurately project the most damaging extremes.

  Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Predictions | Climate Change

Climate action: demanding economic systems that safeguard life - The BMJ

  2021-10-08 in BMJ Blogs

“As health and social inequalities widen, and we learn more about the power held over human lives by an ever-diminishing number of individuals and corporations, I predict that more doctors [...]More...

  Tagged under: Predictions | Health

Infertility poses major threat to biodiversity during climate change, study warns

  2021-08-29 (or before) in EurekAlert! Science News Releases

A new study by University of Liverpool ecologists warns that heat-induced male infertility will see some species succumb to the effects of climate change earlier than thought. Currently, scientists are trying to predict where species will be lost due to climate change so they can plan effective conservation strategies. However, research on temperature tolerance has generally focused on the temperatures that are lethal to organisms, rather than those at which organisms can no longer breed.

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change

Economists' erroneous estimates of damages from climate change

  2021-08-22 (or before) in e-Print archive

Economists have predicted that damages from global warming will be as low as 2.1% of global economic production for a 3$^\circ$C rise in global average surface temperature, and 7.9% for a 6$^\circ$C rise. Such relatively trivial estimates of economic damages -- when these economists otherwise assume that human economic productivity will be an order of magnitude higher than today -- contrast strongly with predictions made by scientists of significantly reduced human habitability from climate change. Nonetheless, the coupled economic and climate models used to make such predictions have been influential in the international climat...

  Tagged under: Tipping Points | Predictions | Climate Change | Collapse

Past world economic production constrains current energy demands: Persistent scaling with implications for economic growth and climate change mitigation

  2021-08-08 (or before) in PLOS - Open Science

Climate change has become intertwined with the global economy. Here, we describe the contribution of inertia to future trends. Drawing from thermodynamic principles, and using 38 years of available statistics between 1980 to 2017, we find a constant scaling between current rates of world primary energy consumption E ( t ) and the historical time integral W of past world inflation-adjusted economic production Y, or W ( t ) = ∫ 0 t Y ( t ′ ) d t ′. In each year, over a period during which both E and W more than doubled, the ratio of the two remained nearly unchanged, that is λ = E ( t ) ( t ) / W ( t ) = 5 ....

  Tagged under: Renewable Energy | Nuclear Power | Predictions | Climate Change | Economics | Fossil Fuels | Economic Growth | Climate Change Mitigation

Can we fix climate models to better predict record-shattering weather?

  2021-07-27 (or before) by in New Scientist

  Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Predictions | Climate Change

A Field Guide to Climate Anxiety

  2021-07-25 (or before) in University of California Press

Gen Z's first "existential toolkit" for combating eco-guilt and burnout while advocating for climate justice. A youth movement is reenergizing global environmental activism. The “climate generation”—late millennials and iGen, or Generation Z—is demanding that policy makers and government leaders take immediate action to address the dire outcomes predicted by climate science.

  Tagged under: Activism | Predictions | Climate Anxiety and Grief | Climate Justice

MIT Predicted in 1972 That Society Will Collapse This Century. New Research Shows We’re on Schedule.

  2021-07-19 (or before) in VICE

A 1972 MIT study predicted that rapid economic growth would lead to societal collapse in the mid 21st century. A new paper shows we’re unfortunately right on schedule.

  Tagged under: Predictions | Economic Growth | Collapse

Moist Heat Stress on a Hotter Earth

  2021-07-04 (or before) in Annual Reviews

As the world overheats—potentially to conditions warmer than during the three million years over which modern humans evolved—suffering from heat stress will become widespread. Fundamental questions about humans’ thermal tolerance limits are pressing. Understanding heat stress as a process requires linking a network of disciplines, from human health and evolutionary theory to planetary atmospheres and economic modeling. The practical implications of heat stress are equally transdisciplinary, requiring technological, engineering, social, and political decisions to be made in the coming century. Yet relative to th...

  Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Predictions | Health

War footing needed to correct economists climate change failings

  2021-05-25 (or before) in CNBC

Economic forecasts predicting the potential impact of climate change grossly underestimate the reality and have delayed global recovery efforts by decades, a leading professor has said.

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change

Ignoring climate change will lead to unprecedented, societally disruptive heat extremes in the Middle East

  2021-03-26 (or before) in - News and Articles on Science and Technology

The Middle East and North Africa Region (MENA) is a climate change hot spot where summers warm much faster than in the rest of the world. Some parts of the region are already among the hottest locations globally. A new international study led by scientists from the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center of the Cyprus Institute and the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry predicts that ignoring the signals of climate change and continuing business as usual with increasing greenhouse gas emissions will lead to extreme, life-threatening heatwaves in the region. Such extraordinary heat events will have a severe impact on the people of...

  Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Heatwaves | Greenhouse Gases | Africa | Predictions | Climate Change | Middle East

Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future

  2021-01-13 (or before) in Frontiers

We report three major and confronting environmental issues that have received little attention and require urgent action. First, we review the evidence that future environmental conditions will be far more dangerous than currently believed. The scale of the threats to the biosphere and all its lifeforms — including humanity — is in fact so great that it is difficult to grasp for even well-informed experts. Second, we ask what political or economic system, or leadership, is prepared to handle the predicted disasters, or even capable of such action. Third, this dire situation places an extraordinary responsibility on s...

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Health | Sustainability

The Arctic is in a death spiral. How much longer will it exist?

  2020-10-26 (or before) in The Guardian

The region is unravelling faster than anyone could once have predicted. But there may still be time to act

  Tagged under: Arctic | Predictions | Climate Change | Ice Melting

Amusing Ourselves to Death: Revisiting the Prophetic Work of Neil Postman

  2020-10-19 in Public Discourse

Thirty-five years ago, New York University professor of communications Neil Postman predicted the political and social implosion we have witnessed in 2020. We must learn to dominate digital media technology, lest it dominate us. Otherwise, we may very well amuse ourselves, and our polis, to death.

  Tagged under: Predictions

Rainforest at Biosphere 2 Offers Glimpse into Future of the Amazon

  2020-10-12 in University of Arizona News

Tropical forests may be more resilient to climate change than previously thought, according to a new study. The results could help make climate prediction models more accurate.

  Tagged under: Rainforests | Amazon Rainforest | Predictions | Climate Change | Trees

New studies confirm weakening of the Gulf Stream circulation (AMOC)

  2020-09-17 in RealClimate

Many of the earlier predictions of climate research have now become reality. The world is getting warmer, sea levels are rising faster and faster, and more frequent heat waves, extreme rainfall, devastating wildfires and more severe tropical storms are affecting many millions of people. Now there is growing evidence that another climate forecast is already coming true: the Gulf Stream system in the Atlantic is apparently weakening, with consequences for Europe too. ...

  Tagged under: Extreme Rainfall | Wildfires | Predictions | Sea Level

New studies confirm weakening of the Gulf Stream circulation (AMOC)

  2020-09-17 in RealClimate

Many of the earlier predictions of climate research have now become reality. The world is getting warmer, sea levels are rising faster and faster, and more frequent heat waves, extreme rainfall, devastating wildfires and more severe tropical storms are affecting many millions of people. Now there is growing evidence that another climate forecast is already coming true: the Gulf Stream system in the Atlantic is apparently weakening, with consequences for Europe too. ...

  Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Extreme Rainfall | Wildfires | Predictions | Gulf Stream (AMOC) | Sea Level

AGU demands NOAA appointment be rescinded - From The Prow

  2020-09-14 in From The Prow

AGU urges revocation of David Legates’ appointment as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Observation and Prediction at NOAA.

  Tagged under: Predictions

Most polar bears to disappear by 2100, study predicts

  2020-07-20 in The Guardian

Melting Arctic sea ice could cause starvation and reproductive failure for many as early as 2040, scientists warn

  Tagged under: Arctic | Greenhouse Gases | Predictions | Wildlife | Ice Melting | Russia | Alaska

Climate change: New forecasts predict rising average temperatures, a warming Arctic and more Atlantic storms

  2020-07-09 (or before) in Sky News

The analysis suggests annual global temperatures at least 1C above pre-industrial levels in each year between 2020 and 2024.

  Tagged under: Arctic | Predictions | Climate Change

‘Six Months To Avert Climate Crisis’: Climate Breakdown And The Corporate Media

  2020-06-23 in Media Lens - Correcting for the distorted vision of the corporate media

In his classic science fiction novel, ‘Foundation’, Isaac Asimov posited a future in which ‘psychohistorians’ could predict outcomes based on past history and the large-scale behaviour of human populations by combining psychology and the mathematics of probability. Using ‘psychohistory’, the protago

  Tagged under: Predictions

BP confirms job cuts, reasserts clean energy pledge

  2020-06-09 in Business Green

Oil major announces it is to cut around 10,000 jobs globally, as CEO predicts coronavirus crisis will accelerate company's transition towards cleaner energy sources

  Tagged under: BP | Predictions

UK Hydrological Status Update - May 2020 | UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

  2020-05-27 (or before) in UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

For 2020 so far, the hydrological situation has been extremely mixed. In February we saw record-breaking rainfall and river flows, and one of the most significant flood events of recent years. Just a couple of months later, after a prolonged period of dry weather, records were broken at the other end of the hydrological spectrum. In the latest in a briefing note, this caused widespread and sustained flooding in many parts of the country.An exceptionally dry spring so far?March is often a 'transitional' spring month but the contrast between the UK Water Resources Portal. Figure right: April monthly mean river flows for the UK. Fr...

  Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Extreme Rainfall | Drought | Predictions | Flooding | Rivers | Sea Level | Health | Water Resources

Climate change is getting worse but it is no worse than we predicted - Climate Change Committee

  2020-05-04 in Climate Change Committee

Worsening climate change should not be mistaken for individual events that are worse than expected. Recent extremes give a clear picture of the impacts and risks that come with a human-driven warming climate. Extreme events also emphasise the urgency of action to achieve Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change, write Professor Piers Forster and Professor Corinne Le Quéré.

  Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Greenhouse Gases | Predictions | Climate Change | Net Zero | Climate Change Impacts

Nutrient dilution and climate cycles underlie declines in a dominant insect herbivore

  2020-04-25 (or before) in PNAS - Proceedings of the National Academy of Science

Parsing variation in long-term patterns underlying insect abundances and assigning mechanisms are critical in light of recent reports of dramatic insect declines. Grasshopper abundances in a North American prairie exhibited both 5-y cycles and >2%/y declines over the past 20 y. Large-scale climate oscillations predicted the cycles in grasshopper abundances. Moreover, plant biomass doubled over the same period—likely due to changes in climate and increasing atmospheric CO2—diluting the concentrations in plant tissue of key nutrients which in turn predicted the declines of a dominant herbivore. Nutrient dilution, li...

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Insects | Insect Populations

The coronavirus pandemic is a dress rehearsal for what awaits us if governments continue to ignore science | John Hewson

  2020-04-21 in The Guardian

Leaders have failed to listen to clear warnings and predictions, but the response to Covid-19 is an inspiring indication of what we’re capable of

  Tagged under: Bushfires | Predictions | US Politics

Are We Thinking About Climate Migration All Wrong?

  2020-03-14 by in Rolling Stone - Music, Film, TV and Political News Coverage

Apocalyptic predictions may grab our attention, but they can also stoke xenophobia and miss the full picture of what’s happening on the ground

  Tagged under: Predictions

UK must prepare for more intense storms, climate scientists say

  2020-02-17 by Jonathan Watts in The Guardian

Government urged to create more natural drainage systems to cope with impact of crisis

  Tagged under: Storms. Hurricanes and Tornados | Predictions | UK | Extreme Weather | Climate Change

Manchester cycle network plan could be national blueprint, says Burnham

  2020-01-28 in The Guardian

Mayor urges backing as report sets out predicted gains from walking and cycling scheme

  Tagged under: Predictions

Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region

  2019-12-11 (or before) in Nature

Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1–3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)4. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (O...

  Tagged under: Arctic | Predictions

Greenland's ice sheet melting seven times faster than in 1990s

  2019-12-10 by Fiona Harvey in The Guardian

Scale and speed of loss much higher than predicted, threatening inundation for hundreds of millions of people

  Tagged under: Oceans | Predictions | Science | Glaciers | Global Warming | Ice Melting | Greenland | Climate Change | Sea Level

Biodiversity in 2020: the biggest threats and opportunities

  2019-12-05 in The Guardian

Scientists and conservation professionals predict mosquito-killing fungi and a kelp crisis could be among the trends affecting living things next year

  Tagged under: Renewable Energy | Predictions | Wildlife

Climate models have accurately predicted global heating, study finds

  2019-12-04 in The Guardian

Findings confirm reliability of projections of temperature changes over last 50 years

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change

Renewables in the 2019 General Election

  2019-11-26 in RenewableUK Blog

It’s less then three weeks to go till the general election and, though the final decision of the public still remains very hard to predict, nearly all of the major parties have published their manifestos, giving us a glimpse into the future. In this RenewableUK blog, Senior Public Affairs Manager, Nathan Bennett, compares the major parties' manifesto commitments to renewables. Climate change has been a higher feature of this election than any one previously. To add to this, renewables have never

  Tagged under: Renewable Energy | Predictions | Climate Change

'4°C of global warming is optimal' – even Nobel Prize winners are getting things catastrophically wrong

  2019-11-14 by in The Conversation

William Nordhaus’ predictions of what the climate crisis will cost the earth are dangerously at odds with climate science.

  Tagged under: Predictions

Climate crisis: 11,000 scientists warn of ‘untold suffering’

  2019-11-05 by Damian Carrington in The Guardian

Statement sets out ‘vital signs’ as indicators of magnitude of the climate emergency

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Extreme Weather

Offshore windfarms 'can provide more electricity than the world needs'

  2019-10-25 in The Guardian

Supplies from turbines will prove to be the next great energy revolution, IEA predicts

  Tagged under: Renewable Energy | Predictions | Wind Power | Electricity

Airlines' CO2 emissions rising up to 70% faster than predicted

  2019-09-19 in The Guardian

Carbon dioxide emitted by commercial flights rose by 32% from 2013 to 2018, study shows

  Tagged under: Greenhouse Gases | Predictions

Oceans Are Melting Glaciers from Below Much Faster than Predicted, Study Finds - Inside Climate News

  2019-07-25 in Inside Climate News

Beneath the ocean’s surface, glaciers may be melting 10 to 100 times faster than previously believed, new research shows.  Until now, scientists had a limited understanding of what happens under the water at the point where land-based glaciers meet the sea. Using a combination of radar, sonar and time-lapse photography, a team of researchers has […]

  Tagged under: Oceans | Arctic | Predictions | Climate Change | Antarctic

Climate change made European heatwave at least five times likelier

  2019-07-02 in The Guardian

Searing heat shows crisis is ‘here and now’, say scientists, and worse than predicted

  Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Heatwaves | Predictions | Climate Change

California was warned about climate change 30 years ago. Now it's feeling the effects

  2019-06-27 in Los Angeles Times

A report issued in 1989 warned that California would see more droughts, floods, and fires under climate change. Those projections are now coming true.

  Tagged under: Drought | Predictions | Climate Change | California

Scientists shocked by Arctic permafrost thawing 70 years sooner than predicted

  2019-06-18 in The Guardian

Weakened permafrost in Canadian Arctic a further sign that global climate crisis accelerating faster than scientists had feared

  Tagged under: Arctic | Predictions

Delhi temperature: Delhi records all-time high of 48 degrees Celsius in June, heatwave to continue | Delhi News - Times of India

  2019-06-11 (or before) in Times of India

Mercury in Delhi, on Monday, crossed an all time high of 48 degrees Celsius. The IMD has predicted the heatwave to continue in the national capital. D

  Tagged under: Heatwaves | Predictions

Humans causing shrinking of nature as larger animals die off

  2019-05-23 in The Guardian

Average size of wild animals predicted to fall by a quarter in 100 years through extinctions

  Tagged under: Predictions | Wildlife

David Attenborough, the voice of Our Planet: "Things are going to get worse"

  2019-04-12 by in Vox

The voice of some of the most stunning nature documentaries ever made is pessimistic about the future of wildlife on earth.

  Tagged under: David Attenborough | Wildlife | Predictions

Hockey stick graph - Wikipedia

  2019-03-03 (or before) in Wikipedia

  Tagged under: Global Warming | Predictions | Science

Oxford Economics: Oil and Natural Gas Is Driving U.S. Economic Growth Across Sectors

  2019-02-12 in Energy In Depth | A Project of IPAA

Fueled by record-setting oil and natural gas production, the U.S. extraction sector is poised to grow faster than any other industry this year, according to a new analysis by Oxford Economics. The research firm predicted that the oil, natural gas and mining sector could grow...

  Tagged under: Predictions | Economics | Economic Growth

John Kerry: Europe must tackle climate change or face migration chaos

  2018-11-16 in The Guardian

The ex-US secretary of state, speaking at a Guardian Live event, predicts mass movement from Africa

  Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Africa | European Union

Why climate change will likely be worse than the models predict

  2013-09-04 by in

Dr Aaron Thierry is a quantitative ecologist who recently graduated from The University of Sheffield’s Department of Animal and Plant Sciences. He is extremely concerned about the level of un…

  Tagged under: Extreme Weather | IPCC | Predictions | Climate Change

Sources (67)

American Meteorological Society Journals
Annual Reviews e-Print archive
BMJ Blogs
Business Green
CBS News
Cell Press
Climate Change Committee
Climate Home News
Climate Prediction Center
Deep Green Resistance News Service
Energy In Depth | A Project of IPAA
EurekAlert! Science News Releases
European Commission
From The Prow
Harvard Gazette
Inside Climate News
Live Science
Los Angeles Times
Media Lens - Correcting for the distorted vision of the corporate media
New Scientist - News and Articles on Science and Technology
PLOS - Open Science
PNAS - Proceedings of the National Academy of Science the knowledge platform for disaster risk reduction
Public Discourse
Red, Green and Blue
Renew Economy | News and analysis for the clean energy economy
RenewableUK Blog
Rolling Stone - Music, Film, TV and Political News Coverage
Sky News
The Conversation
The Guardian
The Wall Street Journal - Breaking News, Business, Financial & Economic News, World News and Video
Times of India
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
UN Environment Programme
University of Arizona News
University of California Press
Weather Zone Australia
Wiley Online Library
Woodwell Climate - Investigating the causes and effects of climate change.

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